RetailBI has released its February RetailBI Firearm Sales Index, reporting a 6.5% year-over-year decline in February 2026 compared to February 2025 and a year-to-date decline of 6.1%.
Why the RetailBI Firearm Sales Index was Created
Gearfire's RetailBI believes the firearm supply-chain deserves a credible, data-driven performance marker to guide new firearm production and inventory decisions that precisely align with true consumer demand, optimizing sell-through rates while preserving overall market health.
For decades, firearm manufacturers and distributors have relied on NICS (National Instant Criminal Background Check System) figures as a proxy for consumer demand when forecasting production and inventory needs. While new firearm sales do require a background check and would be reflected in the NICS results in most cases, this methodology proves to be flawed when considering common scenarios— such as permit applications, used firearm sales, transfers, denials, and multiple-firearm transactions — that make NICS an imprecise measure of new firearm demand.
How the RetailBI Firearm Sales Index is Calculated
RetailBI compiles point-of-sale and ecommerce transactions from retailers within its network and isolates new firearm sales. Using a same-store methodology — including only retailers with consistent reporting across both the current and prior-year periods — RetailBI compares unit sales for the same period to the prior year, reporting the variance as a percentage.
By tracking only new firearms and using a same-store adjusted methodology, the Index eliminates distortions caused by retailer turnover and non-sale transactions. This approach ensures true apples-to-apples comparisons and delivers the most accurate measure of new firearms retail performance and demand available to the shooting sports industry.
The Firearm Sales Index (Same-Store Adjusted) will be published monthly on the Outdoor Wire and is readily available on the RetailBI page of the GoGearfire website. Visitors to the site may also subscribe to the RetailBI mailing list to receive the Index directly in their inbox.
In addition to ongoing RetailBI Firearm Sales Index updates, RetailBI publishes comprehensive quarterly and annual reports that highlight broader industry trends and valuable performance benchmarks. Together, these resources ensure retailers, distributors, and manufacturers have continuous access to the data-driven insights they need to make the most informed decisions possible.
Note: Figures are subject to revision as retailer data syncs are finalized.
About RetailBI: RetailBI is the shooting sports industry's most comprehensive business intelligence platform, offering data and insights to help manufacturers, distributors, and retailers make informed business decisions. Powered by transaction data from over 2,000 U.S. firearms retailers, RetailBI delivers unmatched visibility into market trends, consumer behavior, and competitive performance.
About Gearfire: Since 2012, Gearfire has been at the forefront of providing comprehensive software solutions designed to empower independent retailers by addressing the unique challenges and operational needs of outdoor and shooting sports retail. Seamlessly integrating e-commerce, point of sale (POS), range management, firearm-friendly credit card processing, and data analytics. Gearfire provides a true end-to-end retail technology solution for businesses to confidently navigate the modern retail landscape with efficiency and profitability. For more information, visit gogearfire.com.
*January 2026 revised from -6.2% to -5.7% to reflect the full same-store dataset. YTD is calculated from revised figures.