The National Association of Sporting Goods Wholesalers (NASGW) has released its Q1 2025 SCOPE Report, offering a comprehensive analysis of market performance and strategic guidance for shooting sports businesses across the U.S. While the report highlights year-over-year declines across major product categories, data reveals that the industry remains well ahead of pre-pandemic benchmarks, including 2019—the last normalized year before COVID-19 and global disruptions.

Following multiple years of elevated demand driven by pandemic conditions and geopolitical volatility, the market is entering a period of recalibration. Although overall firearms, ammunition, and optics shipments are down compared to Q1 2024, the Q1 2025 numbers exceed those of Q1 2019, signaling longer-term stability.

"While we are seeing some contraction compared to last year, it’s important to recognize that 2024 was inflated by short-term demand triggers—particularly the Israeli-Hamas conflict in Q4 2023,” said Tom Hopper, NASGW’s Senior Data Analyst. “This year’s data indicates a return to more sustainable market conditions."

Key Market Trends

1. Firearms Shipments Show Modest Contraction Across Most Categories

• Total firearms shipments declined 7.5% year-over-year (YoY).
• NICS background checks, a leading indicator of consumer demand, decreased 4.2% YoY, marking 10 of the last 15 months below the prior year.
• Retailer restocking levels are lower as consumer traffic moderates.

Segment Highlights:

• Handguns fell just 2%, with semi-automatics accounting for over 84% of shipments—primarily in 9mm calibers.
• Rifles declined 11%, led by a 25% drop in Modern Sporting Rifles (MSRs). Bolt-action rifles outperformed other types due to seasonal hunting demand.
• Shotguns were also down 11%, with tactical models down 21% while field shotguns held nearly flat at -4%.

Takeaway: The handgun segment remains relatively resilient and serves as a counterweight to sharper declines in MSRs and tactical shotguns.

2. Ammunition Shipments Experience Significant Pullback

• Total ammunition shipments declined 39% YoY, largely driven by inflated sales in early 2024.
• Centerfire ammunition continues to dominate with over 70% share, though down 41% YoY.
• Key calibers 9mm and .223 Rem/5.56 NATO represent over half of Centerfire shipments.

Takeaway: Inventory buildup and slower turn rates are suppressing new orders. Retailers are encouraged to evaluate assortment quality and prioritize top-performing SKUs.

3. Optics Market Stabilizes Following Late 2024 Surge

• Overall optics shipments fell 11% YoY.
• Rifle scopes saw the steepest drop at -24%, with weeks of supply (WOS) exceeding 20.
• Reflex sights remained flat YoY, while thermal and observation optics showed intermittent growth.

Takeaway: The optics market is recalibrating after a strong finish to 2024. Distributors should avoid speculative overstocking and buy to trend.

Macroeconomic Pressures Influence Buying Behavior

1. Inflation and Tariffs

Rising inflation and an emerging trade war are driving conservative spending patterns. Consumers are increasingly cautious about large or discretionary purchases, including firearms and ammunition.

2. Shrinking Discretionary Income

Economic uncertainty and job market fluctuations are reducing the appetite for non-essential purchases.

3. Slower Retail Traffic and Conservative Inventory Strategy

Retailers are limiting restocking as in-store and online traffic slows. This shift underscores the need for data-driven replenishment strategies tied to regional sell-through performance.

Regional and Product Insights

• Southern and Midwestern regions continue to see relatively higher firearm volumes.
• Pistol Caliber Carbines (PCCs) are gaining share within rifle categories.
• .22 LR Rimfire remains one of the most stable and in-demand calibers across ammunition categories.

In optics, rifle scopes and reflex sights maintain a majority of shipment value, while thermal optics may require continued innovation or marketing to sustain their recent growth.

Strategic Recommendations for 2025

1. Align Product Strategies with Regional Demand

Use SCOPE’s geographic data to tailor inventory by market. For example, bolt-action rifles may continue performing well in regions with strong hunting seasons.

2. Double Down on Proven SKUs

Top performers include:

• Glock G19 and G43X, and Sig Sauer P365 in handguns
• Ruger American Gen II in bolt-action rifles
• Beretta A300 Ultima Patrol in shotguns
• CCI Blazer Brass and PMC 5.56 NATO in ammunition

3. Use Forecasting Tools to Stay Agile

Track 13-week shipping averages and adjust purchase cycles to align with real-time market behavior rather than historical seasonal expectations.

4. Emphasize Value Messaging in Consumer Marketing

With consumer confidence fluctuating, highlight value in pricing, reliability, and application (e.g., home defense, recreational shooting, hunting).

5. Optimize Inventory with WOS Metrics

High WOS in categories like rifle scopes, tactical shotguns, and MSRs signals oversupply. Delay reorders and focus on high-velocity SKUs.

Navigating the Road Ahead

The Q1 2025 SCOPE Report confirms that the shooting sports industry is not in decline—but in transition. Demand is stabilizing at levels that still exceed those of 2019, presenting opportunities for businesses that embrace agility, collaboration, and a strategic use of data.

"Now is the time to prepare, not panic," said Hopper. "Retailers, distributors, and manufacturers must work together to adapt. Data will be the difference between simply surviving and sustainably growing."

About NASGW

The National Association of Sporting Goods Wholesalers (NASGW) serves as the premier industry resource for shooting sports wholesalers, manufacturers, and industry professionals. Through SCOPE, NASGW delivers data-driven insights to support more informed business decisions across the distribution channel.

For more information about SCOPE, visit www.nasgwscope.org.