With temperatures dropping from the 90s to the 50s and a yard full of early dropping fall leaves, it’s beginning to look at lot like “peeping” season. Leaf peeping, that is.
Across the country, crazy summertime weather has ranged from unbelievably mild to outrageously wild. In light of all that, it’s easy to think that fall’s not going to be much different. Hopefully, we’ll get more mild and a lot less wild, especially when we look at our rapidly passing summer from the long view.
Unfortunately, my ultimate weather expert always takes the long view. After all, they’ve been doing weather-related predictions for more than two centuries. They’re predicting an “old fashioned winter” as we ring down the curtain on another trip around the sun.
Yep, the Farmers’ Almanac says this winter will be colder-than-average for much of the country. The experts predict dramatic temperature swings and widespread snow. Thankfully, plagues of frogs and water changing to blood aren’t on their prediction list.
Before the winter gets here, however, there’s the small matter of fall. And fall, across the country, means the metamorphosis as deciduous trees head for their annual dormant period. To most of us, that’s “leaf peeping” season.
Despite those early drop leaves I vacuumed up this weekend, the South is actually several weeks away from peak peeping season. Actually, there’s not a lot of leaf activity happening right now. That’s due to two factors:daylight and temperature. Further north and in higher elevations, a shortage of both stops the process of photosynthesis. That’s the process that turns leaves green. A shortage of chlorophyll lets other minor concentrations of chemicals (anthocyanin and carotenoids in case you’re taking a science exam) dominate, turning the leaves red, yellow or orange.
In short, that means you’re more likely to see the yellow of aspens in the mountains (think Colorado, Utah, Montana and Idaho) this week than anything other than early droppers in the rest of the country. For most of the rest of us, peak fall color starts to arrive in October. More than eighty percent of leaf peepers make their pilgrimages during the month.
Popular destinations include New England (an estimated ten million people intrude on the locals during “leaf season”). Northern Vermont, New Hampshire and northwest Maine hit peak in early October. New York, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania follow a bit later in the month.
In leaf peeping, like comedy, timing is everything. That’s the primary reason it’s really tough for the incurable planner in your family to deal with a leaf-peeping trip. The timing of peak season is tough to predict, and that’s why you need to remain somewhat flexible in travel schedules. That’s easy advice to offer, but it makes outplanning more than a little difficult.
According to the website Explore Fall you need to know when leaves normally change in the area you’re wanting to visit. From there, you can use a real-time fall foliage map (theirs is my choice) to see just how closely foliage peaks are following the historic norms.
From that point, it’s a matter of rolling with the flow and adjusting schedules accordingly.
Once you get to your destination, you’re going to be competing with cars, vans, RVs, campers and other peepers. So here’s the same advice I’d offer a photographer who wants to take pictures without battling crowds. Thing very early morning (before crowds are up and out) or late afternoon, early evening. Both times offer amazing, diffused lighting. You might not realize it, but great photographers aren’t chasing amazing images, they’re capturing amazing lighting.
One more thing…
It’s worth remembering that “winter” doesn’t officially begin until winter solstice (December 21), but that doesn’t mean there won't be some “wintry-like conditions” to deal with before that.
The Farmers’ Almanac says the coldest conditions are likely in New England and the Northern Plains. The North Central States and Great Lakes regions are likeliest candidates for “snowy, classic winter weather.”
Those of us in the Southeast, Southwest, Texas and the Southern Plains will likely have a wetter-than-normal winter -meaning fewer “snow events” but frequent cold rains, freezing precipitation and occasional cold snaps.
"Most of the country is on tap for a cold or very cold winter, kind of almost going back to an old-fashioned winter," Farmers' Almanac editor Sandi Duncan told USA TODAY. "It's going to cool down, it's going to snow, then it might warm up a little, then it's going to repeat itself again.”
Brrrr….we’ll keep you posted.
— JIm Shepherd