Last Tuesday’s election results are not yet completely finalized but the outcome is crystal clear. Antigun Democrats rode a blue tsunami wave and have knocked out Republicans in races not even on the radar of professional election prognosticators.
The U.S. House of Representatives flipped to Democrat control with the largest Democrat majority since 2009. The U.S. Senate flipped control to a comfortable Democrat margin and that’s not even counting a Mississippi outcome that currently has incumbent U.S. Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith trailing or Alaska, where former Democrat U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola is narrowly leading Republican U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan in a still-to-be-called race. Democrats won governors’ mansions in Georgia, Kansas, Texas, Ohio and elsewhere and the wave will send Democrat majorities — and some supermajorities — in state capitals across the country.
The consequences for the firearm industry could very well be far-reaching. The one silver lining, at least on the federal level, is that President Donald Trump already vowed even before Election Day to “veto insane Democrat bills” that may come his way in the next two years.
House of Representatives
Most election predictions and talking heads thought Democrats would take back the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. Almost no one, however, thought it would be by such a large margin. As it stands, Democrats currently have a 228-139 majority, with 68 races yet to be called, according to the CNBC race tracker. As a reminder, only 218 is needed for a U.S. Rep. Hakeem Jeffries Speakership and the settled number now is greater than the current Republican majority. Some predictions think the final Democrat majority will be closer to 235-250 seats.
Top-level views portend that the new Democrat majority will include several anti-Second Amendment, anti-police Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) members with a sizeable voting bloc to impact how an anticipated Speaker Jeffries manages the Democrat majority.
An additional immediate impact in the House will be new committee chairs who will lead the agenda for the various committees. That includes antigun antagonist Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), who is in line to lead the House Judiciary Committee. It also suggests U.S. Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Calif.) will take over as chairman of the House Oversight Committee. Rep. Garcia released a two-word statement last night when it became clear he would now have subpoena power and lead the powerful Oversight Committee: “LAWYER UP.”
It is clear that House Democrats intend to use their power and large majority to go after political opponents and drag them in front of Congress for likely confrontational committee hearings.
The Senate
While flipping the House was widely expected, election prognosticators were generally unsure how the U.S. Senate would shake out, with some predicting Republicans could hold on and provide a backstop against Democrat-controlled House legislation.
That didn’t happen.
The blue wave washed over the Senate in a big way, leading to shocking election victories (and seat flips) for Democrats in Texas with James Talarico, Gov. Roy Cooper in North Carolina, former U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Adam Hamilton in Kansas — the first Democrat to win a U.S. Senate seat in The Sunflower State in nearly 100 years. Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson lost her race for the Iowa Senate seat to Democrat state Rep. Josh Turek. In Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins lost to Democrat Troy Jackson, while South Carolina’s Republican Sen. Darline Graham fell to Democrat challenger Annie Andrews.
The race in Alaska is too close to call at this time, with incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan trailing by three-tenths of a percent, with 74 percent of the vote in. Mississippi U.S. Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith is currently trailing by 48 votes. And DSA star Abdul El-Sayed — who proclaimed the Second Amendment right to bear arms should be replaced with a right to universal health care — topped Republican challenger former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers.
It will be “Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer” again; it’s just a matter of how many senators he has in the caucus. Currently, Democrats hold 54 Senate seats.
On the federal level, the only real silver lining for Second Amendment advocates to cheer about is President Trump’s proclamation that he will utilize the veto pen early and often, to put an immediate stop to Democrats’ “insane bills.” Given his strong track record on Second Amendment issues, those vetoes will certainly include any antigun legislation over the next two years.
In the States
The wave, of course, soaked down to the states and had a huge impact on governors’ mansions and state legislatures. But the very top-level takeaway is that multiple governorships flipped from Republican to Democrat. Some were earthquakes.
Democrat Gina Hinojosa handily beat incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott in Texas with a margin currently sitting at seven points. Georgia’s governor’s mansion is flipping parties as well as former Atlanta Democrat Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms trounced Republican businessman Rick Jackson, also by seven points. Democrat Rob Sand won the Iowa governor’s race by 11 points, a flip from Republican, and Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo was defeated by Democrat Aaron Ford, also by seven points. There are now 28 Democrat governors, compared to just 20 Republican governors, with two races still to be called.
Those blue wave riptides hit state attorneys general (AGs), Kansas AG Kris Kobach lost for instance, and have swept significant flips or widening margins in majorities and supermajorities within state legislative chambers as well. With no president to singularly veto anti-firearm industry legislation within the states, serious challenges are ahead in combating antigun, anti-Second Amendment industry attacks at the state level.
Reporting suggested that gun rights restrictions weren’t necessary top-of-mind for voters as a particular and specific priority issue leading up to Election Day. Firearm sales did surge prior to Nov. 3, but the blue wave was more than a gun control wave. NSSF is still combing through outstanding races and election results. The firearm industry will monitor developments and keep our members updated on additional developments. We will be ready for the fights ahead in 2027.
– Larry Keane
Larry Keane is SVP for Government and Public Affairs, Assistant Secretary and General Counsel of the National Shooting Sports Foundation.