Most of us glaze over when it comes to commodity pricing. We don’t know much about pork bellies, cattle futures, or Brent crude. Doesn’t mean those things aren’t important; but they’re futures, by definition things not in the immediate.
Oil, however, has moved from the futures to the immediate. Most of us have already read about $8.71/gallon gas price at one notorious station in California, but “that’s California” right?
Nope. Nationwide gas prices are rising faster than weeds in a spring lawn.
Those rising oil prices impact everyone. Some feel it faster and harder than others, but we’re all going to feel the squeeze, barring some sudden and unexpected resolution to the Iran situation. President Trump’s expletive-laden Easter rant isn’t likely to convince Iran to suddenly allow tankers to peacefully transit the Gulf of Hormuz.
Stock prices have already moved into “correction” territory. That value drop impacts corporate lending and operating costs. Their value’s going down as costs are going up means borrowing costs more. Increased costs means higher prices.
For all of us, prices are rising. The higher costs of transportation make it inevitable.
This past weekend, I watched a trucker hit four figures fueling his big rig. His last fill-up, he told me, was “only” $874. He’s no longer taking short haul deliveries or accepting LTL loads - unless he had enough LTLs to fill a container.
“No way am I going to put miles on my rig,” he explained, “if the load won’t cover fuel and operating costs.” Dead-heading, driving a commercial truck with no cargo, is becoming prohibitively expensive for independent haulers. Consequently, some independents are simply parking their rigs until a load comes available.
That impacts transport vehicle availability, and the circle of impact widens.Oil prices don’t just impact the gas pump or delivery costs.
From seed and fertilizers for crops to the bags grocers put them in, oil impacts pricing on everything.
If you travel by air, your next airline ticket will likely include a fuel surcharge. Barring a radical change, overall ticket prices will rise as well.
With the possible exception of California gas stations, it’s not price gouging. It’s economic reality.
No business exists to lose money. The corner coffee shop is no different from a Fortune 500 biggie. Prices have to reflect costs plus profit. Coffee prices have already skyrocketed.
The outdoor industry was already feeling the pressure. Ultimately, it’s an industry based on disposable income. But in many instances, disposable income is a misnomer. “Disposable income” actually means available and affordable credit. When the cost of essential goods rises, both the ability to buy -and borrow- are negatively impacted.
The economic squeeze has been obvious for some time in a pair of big ticket items: boats and recreational vehicles.
The National Marine Manufacturers Association had projected overall 2026 boat sales similar to 2025 (2025 was down 8-10% over 2024), but that’s not the whole story.
New boat sales have been slow for quite some time. In 2025, pre-owned boats represented 80% of the year’s total sales. New boat sales were stagnant at best.
This year, there’s an increasing trend toward alternatives to outright boat ownership. Boat clubs and shared-access models are growing in popularity.
Their higher usage costs are offset by the cumulative ownership costs for purchase, storage, maintenance and insurance, especially in larger models.
This year, buyers are leaning toward smaller, trailerable boats and personal watercraft. Not only are they less expensive to acquire, they’re more affordable to operate or store.
In the RV segment, January’s cautious optimism isn’t totally gone, but it’s being tempered by consumer concerns over higher borrowing rates and rising economic pressure. That’s not doing much for 2026 models, but is apparently helping dealers move older, aging inventory off their lots.
Overall, 2026 is looking like another buyer’s market for both the boat and RV industries. But those prospective buyers may consider 2026 a good year to hold off on purchases. Especially any that mean taking on additional debt.
For accessories manufacturers, that’s not all bad news. Concerned current owners may look at upgrading or refreshing their current boat or RV rather than upgrade to newer models. That could indicate additional business for refurbishment and repair shops.
But their costs are rising too.
The net/net of it all is this: it costs everyone more to live today compared to just a few months ago. Whether costs ease or rise remains to be seen.
For some companies, the costs have already become too great.
Tedder Industries, parent company of Alien Gear, failed last year. Barring something untoward, Alien Gear will become a part of Cadre Holdings (NYSE: CDRE) sometime later this quarter. Last month, a bankruptcy court accepted Cadre’s $10.3 million bankruptcy auction bid. Cadre already owns Safariland. The addition of Alien Gear will give them another known brand with popular products in the consumer, law enforcement, military and security products categories.
As always, we’ll keep you posted.
— Jim Shepherd