This morning, there’s a briefing from the Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) for “the Hill” regarding their interim rule regarding the “pause” on the issuance of new government licenses for firearms, related components and ammunition for “nongovernmental end users,”

The Outdoor Wire has learned the Commerce Department plans to make that “pause” on the issuance of new export licenses for firearms, related components and ammunition permanent.

That announcement, we’ve learned, could come as soon as tomorrow and “most definitely” by the first of next week.

More than a few United States Senators are already“less than thrilled” at what they call yet another example of bureaucratic overreach. But there’s little they can do at this point.

Sources tell The Outdoor Wire that Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo will announce the “pause” on government export licenses for firearms, components and ammunition for “nongovernmental end users” permanent. The announcement could come as soon as tomorrow. Commerce Department photo.

If Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo presses forward with the change and Congress can’t reverse it, the costs to the gun industry could be $238 million in annual revenues.

That’s a far cry from the $10 million dollar cost estimate Commerce reportedly has assigned to the change. That estimate, FYI, would put it under a number requiring Congressional approval.

Like the original announcement of BIS's “90 day pause” -the timing of this status change appears to be based on the old “Friday news dump” theory. Bad news -or controversial decisions- are historically dropped late on Fridays, preferably in the spring and summer.

The theory’s predicated on the fact that in major news organizations’ “B-teams” are working the weekends. Senior reporters and Congressional staffers don’t work weekends. That means no “working the Rolodex” to get comments.

The “pause” has already put a financial hurt on many smaller providers in the industry. One machine company in Tennessee has already closed, putting ten people out of work. Company owners attribute the business closure to the “pause” that stopped a major contract for more than $6.5 million worth of components to a single gun company. Other small companies nationwide are suffering significant losses. Larger companies haven’t commented, but the pause has essentially stopped more than a thousand export licenses.

The “pause” began on October 27, 2023, when the Commerce Department announced a “temporary pause” on the issuance of new licenses involving firearms, related components and ammunition for “nongovernmental end users” in certain countries. The pause by the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) was to last “approximately 90 days” and allow the department to “assess current firearm export control review policies to determine whether any changes are warranted to advance U.S. national security and foreign policy interests.”

In February, well past the 90-day pause window, Senators Mike Lee (R-UT) and Kevin Cramer (R-ND) sent a letter to the Commerce Department. In it, they expressed a concern that while there was little evidence the pause on new export licenses improved U.S. national security, there was extensive evidence it harmed small and medium-sized American businesses.

Here’s what they concluded:

According to industry experts, the 90-day pause implemented by the Commerce Department is likely to cost American businesses hundreds of millions of dollars in lost revenue. The Department’s pause on issuing new export licenses for firearms comes at the very same time that the Department has loosened restrictions on exporting products controlled under the Chemical Weapons Convention and Missile Technology Control Regime. It is difficult, therefore, for us to conclude that the Commerce Department’s pause on issuing new licenses is truly motivated by a desire to promote U.S. national security. […] Nevertheless, 90 days have now passed and the Commerce Department’s pause remains in full effect.”

A fairly significant political “fingerprint” indicates the whole “pause” scheme was initiated by the White House’s newest gun control group, the White House Office of Gun Violence Prevention.

Unable to pass gun control legislation, the current administration appears to have included anti-gun moves in their “whole of government approach” to getting their agenda enacted- without approval from either Congress or the courts.

By changing administrative language and rule interpretations (think the AFT’s “in the business” or “gun” definition changes) they achieve immediate results. Reversing those administrative decisions requires processes. In the interim, the damage is done to those impacted by the rule -with no risk of penalty to the administrators.

According to the Senators, the “pause” appeared to be a “concerted and deliberate attempt to punitively target the American firearms industry.”

They urged the Commerce Department to lift the pause and “refrain from imposing any new regulations that would unduly harm countless small and medium sized businesses across the United States.”

That letter appears to have neither motivated nor intimidated the BIS. Seven months after the announcing 90-day pause, and more than a month since the Senators’ letter, the pause remains in effect.

Now, it appears Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo is prepared to make the pause permanent.

Sources tell us the Secretary is also “cleansing” the Department of longtime employees and administrators who have gone on record as opposing the scheme.

Earlier this week, a whistleblower in Commerce tipped Senators of the impending change. Shortly afterwards, he was told to “start making plans for future employment.”

The whistleblower also told members of Congress that Commerce Department employees involved in the BIS were “assembled” and told to “either get onboard or prepare to get out” (of the Commerce Department) prior to the plan being announced as permanent.

Small companies that manufacture components for firearms companies are already suffering under the “pause”.

That doesn’t appear to bother either the bureaucrats or Secretary Raimondo one whit.

A permanent ban on exporting of civilian products by the firearms industry will have a telling impact, and it won’t simply impact firearms or ammunition manufacturers. Every company that supplies the industry with everything from raw goods to machined component parts will share in the discomfort.

Some won’t survive.

We have the BIS briefing covered, and as always, we’ll keep you posted.

— Jim Shepherd