Before we go one word further, please don’t forget that tomorrow’s more than Friday- it’s Valentine’s Day. So don’t say we didn’t warn all of you. It’s not too-late to get something to let your special someone know they really are Your.Special.Someone.
With apologies to the title, and all English teachers worldwide, we resume.
Earlier this week, I offered one of my “homespun economic lessons” regarding a quick check of today’s economy. Imagine my surprise when I got a positive response from a real economist.
Of course, it didn’t start off positive. “So,” it read, “don’t trust economists, huh?”
He went on to give me the best line I’ve ever read about the group: “The only time you can trust an economist is when he’s dating your daughter.”
In all seriousness, he then went on to explain that economists “regularly project conditions for clients” but “rarely would invest our money on such projections.”
That, he explained, is because there’s one critter that’s simply impossible to predict: humans.
“Many scientific ways have been tried,” I was told, “and none work (or the inventor would have cornered the stock market by now).”
Of the few indicators he says do “hold best” employment rates rank highest. “When the economy is hot,” he explained, “our customer has less time to hunt/fish, so linens sales drop and sales of outdoor consumables (hooks, bug spray and such) go soft, delivery services increase, pawn shops and dollar stores suffer.”
But that’s not all bad news. Conversely, boat sales and high end rods and reels plus firearms do well though they aren’t being used as much as people like.
So, as it has been explained to me, economic growth, if too-strong, can actually suppress the hunting and fishing business.
It actually makes sense when you realize that the “stay-cation” is the kind of family experience that tends to center toward hunting/fishing rather than the “romantic trip to exotic locales” of the high and famous.
But, I’ve been told, “watch marine boat and engine sales” to see how well the economy’s really doing. Marine goods, especially those higher-end ones, do well when companies are paying bonuses. When they’re not doing as well, bonuses drop, and the sales of marine engines and new boats reflect that change.
All these higher-view explanations make perfect sense, don’t they?
Reading sign, it seems, shouldn’t be limited to out outdoor activities. Like “situational awareness” in your family’s security, they can be lifesavers when it comes to your lifesavings.
We’re watching the signs, and as always, we’ll keep you posted.
—Jim Shepherd
