Normally, everyone does their prognosticating for the new year before the old year’s ended. If that sounds like the same people who pull down the July 4th displays so they can put up Halloween costumes in their stores, I couldn’t agree more.

Putting 2018 in perspective before the year ends is a lot like the Chicago Bears fans celebrating Sunday’s last-second win before realizing there was a time-out called. Their kicker missed the “real” one -and having been a kicker who missed some clutch shots, I’m not pointing a finger, just saying that celebration was a bit premature.

2018 was, by all accounts, not the best year for the outdoor industry. And the NSSF’s announcing a freeze on rates for the 2020 SHOT Show was one of the signs that confirmed what many people have been telling me: 2018 was one where the numbers fell from what we’re presuming was a peak year: 2016.

Of course, that’s from a brick-and-mortar retailer’s perspective. Online products - which contrary to what you hear in Congress does not include “guns on demand” - saw significant increases in sales. Brick-and-mortar stores without the ability to sell online missed out on that opportunity.

But all the pressures on the industry weren’t limited to sales. The phenomenon of “virtue signaling” came into existence last year, with companies like Dick’s Sporting Goods not just shying away from formerly core products, but rejecting them- and the companies that make them- outright. Dick’s is paying the price in lost sales and traffic, but the company remains unrelentingly unapologetic. In fact, they’re now “experimenting” with around 10 stores where they’ve removed all their hunting and fishing gear and replaced it with “other categories.”

As I wrote last year, Dick’s isn’t finished being done with the hunting/shooting category. But the handwriting’s on the wall - their stores are exiting the traditional outdoor category and retooling to what they see as a safer retail play. Personally, I think the “virtue signaling” was simply a disguise for what was, in fact, a cold-blooded business decision.

And the none-too-subtle pressure continues on banks and financial institutions to cut ties with the firearms industry. I say that despite yesterday’s announcement of Congressional legislation designed to prevent that very kind of conduct had been introduced.

My reasoning’s simple: you can introduce any pro-gun legislation you’d like in the House of Representatives, but you can bet your personal net worth that if it even gets into committee that it will be coming out.

Thankfully, the House legislation introduced to require federal background checks on all firearms sales- including personal ones between family members- will likely fail in the Senate. Because there’s not much chance it won’t pass in the House given the new majority makeup.

All this -fortunately- is speculation, but my speculating is based on having seen several of these cyclic changes in what has quietly become a half-century of covering business and politics. The pendulum swings both ways - and the best any of us can hope to do is to keep the swings from becoming too-extreme in either direction.

From a consumer side, the slight cooling of the industry means two things: 1) there will be more new guns available, likely at more aggressive price points, 2) the price for the most critical part of any gun- ammunition- will likely fall. In fact, a conversation with one manufacturer yesterday leads me to believe we’ll once again see boxes of quality 9mm ammunition under $10, and .22 rimfire priced at about two cents per round.

After that conversation yesterday, I started prowling around retail websites and big box retailers in my area -and sure enough, ammunition prices are already falling.

Now if I could just get a few more places to shoot…..

As always, we’ll keep you posted.

—Jim Shepherd