Just when it seemed the industry's current slowdown was about to worsen, thanks to the traditional—and very real—summer slump, Congress and the President may have just handed the industry a swift kick in the sales butt. Maybe….

On Friday, July 4, President Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill. As you probably know by now, the giant reconciliation bill included the revocation of the $200 Tax Stamp on short-barreled firearms and suppressors. And that’s a big win.

What may not be as clear, due to the language in the bill, is that the $200 Tax Stamp remains in effect until January 1 of 2026. So, the Tax Man still cometh, and we all know he has zero chill when it comes to collecting his pound of flesh.

Six Months of Uncertainty?

With that $200 Tax Stamp still in place for the next six months, how will consumers react and what will it mean for suppressor companies trying to sell to a market reluctant to pay a tax that will not be done away with until six months from now?

Early yesterday, I spoke with Joe Kurtenbach at Silencer Central about the next six months and what it could mean for the suppressor side of the industry.

Right now Silencer Central is running its free tax stamp promotion, which will continue through July 31, 2025. It is a very popular promotion and moves a lot of suppressors, not just for Silencer Central and its BANISH brand, but also for its partner companies.

Kurtenbach explained that the free tax stamp promotion is seeing tremendous response from consumers and is indicative of the continued growth in both interest in and demand for suppressors. In many cases it represents a 20% to 30% discount on the price of the suppressor.

And the timing—meant to boost summer sales—just happened to coincide with the industry’s push for removal of both the $200 tax and the elimination of regulation under the National Firearms Act (NFA) as the House and Senate took up reconciliation of President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill.

While NFA deregulation didn’t make it through the reconciliation process, the elimination of the $200 tax is a huge win in and of itself. And cause for celebration.

It’s also a matter of concern for suppressor makers that aren’t in a position to bridge the gap between now and January 1, 2026.

Kurtenbach told me that Silencer Central is “committed to bridging the gap” and is in discussions with its partners (other suppressor manufacturers) to bring them on board to potentially extend their free tax stamp promotion through the end of 2025.

That’s no small undertaking, because the government will get its $200 and somebody will have to pay it. Silencer Central and other major companies with the resources and margin can afford to ‘eat’ that tax for consumers.

It’s not ideal as a long-term solution but it will address the ravenous consumer demand for another five months, thus capturing revenue that otherwise would likely sit on the sidelines waiting for 2026.

This would also apply to those companies, such as Brownells, that are ‘Delivered by Silencer Central’ partners.

Looking back at the last time the Hearing Protection Act (HPA) was supposed to pass, when Trump won his first election in 2016, the suppressor industry took it on the chin as consumers kept their wallets close—and closed—waiting for the promise of tax free suppressors.

These next six months will be painful for suppressor brands that are not in a position to follow Silencer Central’s lead. Only time will tell exactly how painful.

Fight, Win, Fight

When the ‘All or Nothing’ fight to kill both the tax and NFA regulation failed and devolved into the ‘Not All But Certainly Something’ win, a new fight was immediately announced.

Realizing that getting rid of NFA regulation of suppressors and short-barreled firearms could never happen through the legislative process where 60 veto-proof votes are virtually nonexistent in the Senate, the battle has pivoted to the courts.

The Second Amendment Foundation (SAF), Firearms Policy Coalition (FPC), National Rifle Association and American Suppressor Association released a joint statement announcing their intention to file a new lawsuit challenging the constitutionality of the NFA in Federal Court.

Additionally, Gun Owners of America (GOA), Gun Owners Foundation, Palmetto State Armory, Firearms Regulatory Accountability Coalition, Silencer Shop and B&T USA jointly announced their own move to “file a federal lawsuit to dismantle the remaining provisions of the National Firearms Act.”

In other words it’s now “Avengers assemble” as we head towards what will likely be the Supreme Court. Thanks to the last several years of legal challenges and victories by SAF, FPC, GOA and others supporting them, the industry now finds itself in a strong position to make the argument it’s time for the NFA to go.

While some are still busy shaking their fists in the air and railing against the nonpartisan Senate Parliamentarian that shot down the original language that would have eliminated both the tax and the NFA in the Senate version of the One Big Beautiful Bill, that was then and this is now.

Today, the new battlefield is in the Federal Courts, and it’s a battlefield we’re very familiar with, as evidenced by our many wins.

As Jim always says, we’ll keep you posted.

– Paul Erhardt, Managing Editor, the Outdoor Wire Digital Network