Statistics and Sales

Mar 23, 2017
In 2016, there were approximately 27 million (27,000,000) firearms sold. In 2015, 23 million guns changed hands. If the anti-gun narrative held true, it would stand to reason that accidental gun deaths climbed accordingly.

But they didn't, at least not according to the statistics from the National Safety Council (NSC).

Their injury report for 2015 has accidental deaths by guns at an all time low -489. Statistically, that's 0.3% of all deaths. That's fewer than any year since 1903- the first time those statistics were collected.

There are lots of arguments that could be made against gun regulations, but the National Shooting Sports Foundation puts forward what I think is the best possible explanation for the rise in ownership and the drop in accidental deaths: education about fun, safety and responsibility with firearms is paying off.

"The vast majority of the 100 million American firearms owners meet the serious responsibilities which come with firearms ownership," says NSSF President and CEO Steve Sanetti, "they store their firearms safely when not in use, and follow the basic rules of firearms safety when handling them."

That responsibility of ownership explains the drop in accidents. The rise of activities that highlight the fun of firearms and the growing awareness of personal responsibility explains the overall growth of shooting sports.

That, however, doesn't mean the industry's on auto-pilot these days. In fact, recent layoffs and continued fiscal difficulties at Remington have been attributed to the fact that demand for new guns has dropped- precipitously in some categories.

Last week, Federal Cartridge cited a "market downturn" as the reason it laid off 110 workers at its Anoka, Minnesota, ammunition plant. At the same time, Federal notified Minnesota officials it wouldn't be needing the $1.5 million in state grants and loans for staff expansions. The company was engaged in a $33.9 million factory expansion that was projected to add an additional 50 jobs to the 1400+ person workforce.

According to news reports, the building project will continue, but the hiring goals were off the table, leading to the cancellation of the grants and loans.

"Market conditions have changed," Federal spokesperson Amanda Covington, told the Star Tribune , "As soon as we recognized that we would have to do a head-count reduction, we felt it was prudent to notify the city and the state. Out of fairness to the state and taxpayers, we wanted them to be able to use those funds for other projects rather than wait on us."

In last month's earnings release, Federal parent company Vista Outdoor's CEO Mark DeYoung cited a "challenging retail environment" that worsened in the third quarter following a "slow hunting season and the national elections". DeYoung also credited the Trump win as another reason that sales had slowed, noting that Federal Cartridge and other ammunition makers had expected that an election win by Hillary Clinton might have stimulated sales of guns and ammunition in anticipation of additional gun regulations.

Seems consumer/voters have thrown a monkey wrench into those forecasts across the industry.

Over the past two weeks, I've had the occasion to visit several gun shops from Texas to Tennessee. In each, I saw signs of slowdowns in sales of modern sporting rifles- as in "Sale" signs. At the same time, staffers say traffic in small caliber pistols, shotguns and even revolvers has picked up some of the sales slack.

That, didn't ease their concern over the drying-up of demand for MSR/AR rifles. The slowed demand was underscored during a weekend visit to a large regional gun show in Birmingham, Alabama.

There, along with collectors, historians and shooting enthusiasts, I saw prices as low as $450 for basic AR-style rifles, complete uppers in the $235-250 range in a variety of calibers and stripped lowers priced at $99- per pair.

Vendors had quantities of ammunition and reloading supplies that were simply not available less than a year ago.

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Shoppers may be more price savvy than ever before, but brick-and-mortar retailers still have one advantage over online discounters: product expertise. If your store salespeople don't know the product, you're in trouble.
Interestingly, retailers with displays at this show told me that they were feeling pressure- again- in their brick-and-mortar locations across virtually every category that didn't involve federal paperwork.

"I've seen my in-store sales slip for everything; hunting boots, binoculars, camo and shooting glasses," one dealer told me, "we'd stopped doing internet transfers some time back, but we're starting to do them again- at a lower price- because we need the cash flow."

With big box outdoor retailers like Gander Mountain succumbing to online shopping, it makes sense that the smaller stores would also be feeling the heat.

In every location I visited, stores with the most traffic had one thing in common: a sales staff that wasn't just knowledgeable about their products, but was eager to assist customers, whatever their need.

A service-oriented attitude still goes a long way toward assuring retailing success. Without it, there's little chance a storefront retailer of any size can compete on price.

—Jim Shepherd